The Oracle · Evidence
What the books settled.
Every quote-qualified pick becomes an episode. When both markets close, the ledger checks whether the floor held.
How the ledger works
The record.
Record
Every floor-based, positive-margin row the Oracle reads opens an episode, keyed by its two market ids. Each fresh read that sees it again touches it; the best margin, its cost and both prices are frozen at that moment.
Settle
Past close, the ledger asks Kalshi for the market’s result and Polymarket for its resolved prices, at most 40 lookups a run. The bundle is modeled at one unit per leg; a voided leg refunds its price.
Judge
Floor held means the settled bundle paid at least the floor the relation promised. It proves the two contracts were the same question. It says nothing about fills, slippage or the book after the read.
The ledger is capped at 2,000 episodes; the oldest settled ones fall off first. It is written by the same run that writes the read, and the raw file is public. Out of scope for now: fill-aware replay, a human adjudication queue and the forecast track. The Oracle only reads; it holds nothing and places nothing.